Geodetic Deformation versus Seismic Crustal Moment-Rates: Insights from the Ibero-Maghrebian Region

Abstract

Seismic and geodetic moment-rate comparisons can reveal regions with unexpected potential seismic hazards. We performed such a comparison for the Southeastern Iberia—Maghreb region. Located at the western Mediterranean border along the Eurasia–Nubia plate convergence, the region has been subject to a number of large earthquakes (M ≥ 6.5) in the last millennium. To this end, on the basis of available geological, tectonic, and seismological data, we divided the study area into twenty-five seismogenic source zones. Many of these seismogenic source zones, comprising the Western Betics, the Western Rif mountains, and the High, Middle, and Saharan Atlas, are characterized by seismic/geodetic ratio values lower than 23%, evidencing their prevailing aseismic behavior. Intermediate seismic/geodetic ratio values (between 35% and 60%) have been observed for some zones belonging to the Eastern Betics, the central Rif, and the Middle Atlas, indicating how crustal seismicity accounts only for a moderate fraction of the total deformation-rate budget. High seismic/geodetic ratio values (> 95%) have been observed along the Tell Atlas, highlighting a fully seismic deformation.