Unravelling the jumping to conclusions bias in daily life and health-related decision-making scenarios

Abstract

Reasoning biases are ubiquitous and may lead to errors in daily situations. Jumping to Conclusions (JTC) is the tendency to reach decisions based on scarce data. This study examines JTC in daily life and health-related scenarios, presenting primarily positive or negative information for decision-making. Two population-based surveys containing an experimental paradigm to measure JTC were conducted in a representative sample (N = 1949) during the first month of COVID-19 confinement. JTC task presented daily and health-related scenarios, providing predominantly positive or negative decision-making information. JTC bias prevalence was significantly higher in daily life scenarios and when deciding based on mostly negative information. Specifically, when mainly negative information was available, anxiety raised the JTC likelihood in health-related scenarios, while higher levels of paranoid beliefs increased JTC in daily life-related scenarios. Optimism and age increased the JTC odds in decisions where available information was predominantly positive. Findings highlight contextual and psychological characteristics influencing decision-making in health and daily life issues.