The effect of injury risk on players value: evidence from the main European Leagues

Abstract

The impact of injury risk on the market value of male football players remains an under-researched topic. We investigate this relationship for a large sample (5336 observations) of football players. We first use a logistic regression model to explain the probability of injury, and after a System-GMM regression model, where the dependent variable is the footballers’ market value provided by Transfermarkt over the period 2006–2020, and the independent variables are the previously calculated probability of injury, along with other personal and sporting variables. Our results show that a 1% increase in the probability of a serious injury (more than 28 days’ absence or more than 5 games) is associated with a 2.29% decrease in market value, with a larger decrease when we include severity and recurrence in the injury probability. Quantifying the risk of injury on the value of football players is crucial for effective strategic financial and sporting planning of clubs.