Subtropical Cyclone Formation via Warm Seclusion Development: The Importance of Surface Fluxes

Abstract

Subtropical cyclones (STCs) are characterized by a thermal hybrid structure with tropical and extratropical features. STCs are considered a numerical modeling challenge because of their rapid intensification. A fundamental part of their strength is derived from diabatic processes associated with convection and heat fluxes from the ocean. This study evaluates the importance of surface turbulent heat fluxes during the transition of an extratropical precursor into a STC. This cyclone evolved embedded within a strong meridional flow, having a Shapiro‐Keyser structure and undergoing a warm seclusion process. To assess the importance of those heat fluxes, two Weather Research and Forecasting simulations were defined considering the presence and absence of those fluxes. Results of both simulations reveal a warm seclusion process, which weakened in absence of the heat fluxes. During the system genesis and in absence of heat fluxes, the wind and rainfall values were increased due to the remarkably intense area of frontogenesis to the northwest. Given these results and the lack of transition in the absence of heat fluxes, the frontal nature of the system was verified. Considering the heat fluxes, the obtained potential vorticity values diminished, reducing wind shear and intensifying convection in the system, which favored its transition into an STC. This study is groundbreaking in that no STC has been linked to a warm seclusion process in the Eastern North Atlantic. Additionally, simulated wind field shows an underestimation in comparison with Atmospheric Motion Vectors, used as observational data so as to give a weight to the wind analysis.