Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems

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dc.contributor.authorLawrence, Zachary D.
dc.contributor.authorÁbalos Álvarez, Marta
dc.contributor.authorAyarzagüena Porras, Blanca
dc.contributor.authorBarriopedro Cepero, David
dc.contributor.authorCalvo Fernández, Natalia
dc.contributor.authorDe La Cámara Illescas, Álvaro
dc.contributor.authorRachel W.-Y. Wu
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-18T09:08:30Z
dc.date.available2024-09-18T09:08:30Z
dc.date.issued2022-08-19
dc.descriptionArtículo firmado por 32 autores
dc.description.abstractThe stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability can be limited by biases in the representation of stratospheric processes and the coupling of the stratosphere with surface climate in forecast systems. This study provides a first systematic identification of model biases in the stratosphere across a wide range of subseasonal forecast systems. It is found that many of the forecast systems considered exhibit warm global mean temperature biases from the lower to middle stratosphere, too strong/cold wintertime polar vortices, and too cold extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere regions. Furthermore, tropical stratospheric anomalies associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation tend to decay toward each system's climatology with lead time. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), most systems do not capture the seasonal cycle of extreme vortex event probabilities, with an underestimation of sudden stratospheric warming events and an overestimation of strong vortex events in January. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), springtime interannual variability of the polar vortex is generally underestimated, but the timing of the final breakdown of the polar vortex often happens too early in many of the prediction systems. These stratospheric biases tend to be considerably worse in systems with lower model lid heights. In both hemispheres, most systems with low-top atmospheric models also consistently underestimate the upward wave driving that affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. We expect that the biases identified here will help guide model development for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, and further our understanding of the role of the stratosphere for predictive skill in the troposphere.
dc.description.departmentDepto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Físicas
dc.description.fundingtypePagado por el autor
dc.description.refereedTRUE
dc.description.sponsorshipWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
dc.description.sponsorshipStratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP)
dc.description.sponsorshipUK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
dc.description.sponsorshipEidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
dc.description.sponsorshipSchweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
dc.description.sponsorshipIsrael Science Foundation
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Buenos Aires
dc.description.sponsorshipAgencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Environment Research Council
dc.description.sponsorshipRoyal Society
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Research Foundation of Korea
dc.description.sponsorshipDepartment of Energy, Labor and Economic Growth
dc.description.sponsorshipDivision of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
dc.description.statuspub
dc.identifier.citationLawrence, Z. D., Abalos, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., ... & Wu, R. W. Y. (2022). Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems. Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussions, 2022, 1-37.
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022
dc.identifier.essn2698-4016
dc.identifier.officialurlhttps://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-202
dc.identifier.relatedurlhttps://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/977/2022/
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108229
dc.issue.number3
dc.journal.titleWeather and Climate Dynamics
dc.language.isoeng
dc.page.final1001
dc.page.initial977
dc.publisherEuropean Geosciences Union
dc.relation.projectIDNE/S00985X/1
dc.relation.projectIDETH05 19-1
dc.relation.projectIDPP00P2_170523
dc.relation.projectIDPP00P2_198896
dc.relation.projectID3259/19
dc.relation.projectIDUBACyT20020170100428BA
dc.relation.projectIDPICT-2018-03046
dc.relation.projectIDPID2019- 109107GB-I00
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/RTI2018-096402-B-I00/ES/DINAMICA DEL JET Y EXTREMOS/
dc.relation.projectIDPID2019-110234RBC21
dc.relation.projectIDRYC-2016-21181
dc.relation.projectIDUF160545
dc.relation.projectID2017R1E1A1A01074889
dc.relation.projectIDDE-SC0022070
dc.relation.projectIDIA 1947282
dc.relation.projectIDNA18OAR4320123
dc.relation.projectIDNA20NWS4680051
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.cdu551.51
dc.subject.keywordQuasi-biennial oscillation
dc.subject.keywordSouthern-hemisphere stratosphere
dc.subject.keywordNorth-Atlantic weather
dc.subject.keywordGravity-wave drag
dc.subject.keywordSeasonal prediction
dc.subject.keywordInterannual variability
dc.subject.keywordAnnular modes
dc.subject.keywordClimate
dc.subject.keywordReanalysis
dc.subject.ucmFísica atmosférica
dc.subject.unesco2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
dc.titleQuantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems
dc.typejournal article
dc.type.hasVersionVoR
dc.volume.number3
dspace.entity.typePublication
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