Person: Aguilar Vega, Cecilia
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First Name
Cecilia
Last Name
Aguilar Vega
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Veterinaria
Department
Sanidad Animal
Area
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7 results
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Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
Item Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products(Research in Veterinary Science, 2023) Muñoz Pérez, Carolina; Martínez López, Beatriz; Gómez Vázquez, José Pablo; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Ito, Satoshi; Martínez Avilés, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelAfrican swine fever (ASF) is currently threatening the global swine industry. Its unstoppable global spread poses a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading producers. Over the past years, there has been an increased global burden of ASF not only in swine but also swine products. Unfortunately, many pigs are not diagnosed before slaughter and their products are used for human consumption. These ASF-contaminated products are only a source for new ASF outbreaks when they are consumed by domestic pigs or wild boar, which may happen either by swill feeding or landfill access. This study presents a quantitative stochastic risk assessment model for the introduction of ASF into Spain via the legal import of swine products, specifically pork and pork products. Entry assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment and risk estimation were carried out. The results suggest an annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain of 1.74 × 10−4, the highest risk being represented by Hungary, Portugal, and Poland. Monthly risk distribution is homogeneously distributed throughout the year. Illegal trade and pork product movement for own consumption (e.g., air and ship passenger luggage) have not been taken into account due to the lack of available, accredited data sources. This limitation may have influenced the model's outcomes and, the risk of introduction might be higher than that estimated. Nevertheless, the results presented herein would contribute to allocating resources to areas at higher risk, improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.Item What can we learn from the five-year African swine fever epidemic in Asia?(Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 2023) Ito, Satoshi; Kawaguchi, Nijiho; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelToday’s global swine industry is exposed to the unprecedented threat of African swine fever (ASF). Asia, the site of the most recent epidemics, could serve as a huge viral reservoir for the rest of the world given the severity of the damage, the huge swine industry, and the high volume of trade with other countries around the world. As the majority of ASF notifications in Asia today originate from pig farms, the movement of live pigs and associated pork products are considered critical control points for disease management. Particularly, small-scale or backyard farms with low biosecurity levels are considered major risk factors. Meanwhile, wild boars account for most notified cases in some countries and regions, which makes the epidemiological scenario different from that in other Asian countries. As such, the current epidemic situation and higher risk factors differ widely between these countries. A variety of studies on ASF control have been conducted and many valuable insights have been obtained in Asia; nevertheless, the overall picture of the epidemic is still unclear. The purpose of this review is to provide an accurate picture of the epidemic situation across Asia, focusing on each subregion to comprehensively explain the disease outbreak. The knowledge gained from the ASF epidemics experienced in Asia over the past 5 years would be useful for disease control in areas that are already infected, such as Europe, as well as for non-affected areas to address preventive measures. To this end, the review includes two aspects: a descriptive analytical review based on publicly available databases showing overall epidemic trends, and an individualized review at the subregional level based on the available literature.Item Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population(Scientific Reports, 2024) Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Goicolea, Teresa; Cisneros-Araújo, Pablo; Mateo-Sánchez, M. CruzAfrican swine fever (ASF) is an infectious and highly fatal disease affecting wild and domestic swine, which is unstoppably spreading worldwide. In Europe, wild boars are one of the main drivers of spread, transmission, and maintenance of the disease. Landscape connectivity studies are the main discipline to analyze wild-species dispersal networks, and it can be an essential tool to predict dispersal-wild boar movement routes and probabilities and therefore the associated potential ASF spread through the suitable habitat. We aimed to integrate wild boar habitat connectivity predictions with their occurrence, population abundance, and ASF notifications to calculate the impact (i.e., the capacity of a landscape feature to favor ASF spread) and the risk (i.e., the likelihood of a habitat patch becoming infected) of wild boar infection across Europe. Furthermore, we tested the accuracy of the risk of infection by comparing the results with the temporal distribution of ASF cases. Our findings identified the areas with the highest impact and risk factors within Europe's central and Eastern regions where ASF is currently distributed. Additionally, the impact factor was 31 times higher on habitat patches that were infected vs non-infected, proving the utility of the proposed approach and the key role of wild boar movements in ASF-spread. All data and resulting maps are openly accessible and usable.Item Application of machine learning with large-scale data for an effective vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar in Japan(Scientific Reports, 2024) Ito, Satoshi; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Isoda, Norikazu; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelClassical swine fever has been spreading across the country since its re-emergence in Japan in 2018. Gifu Prefecture has been working diligently to control the disease through the oral vaccine dissemination targeting wild boars. Although vaccines were sprayed at 14,000 locations between 2019 and 2020, vaccine ingestion by wild boars was only confirmed at 30% of the locations. Here, we predicted the vaccine ingestion rate at each point by Random Forest modeling based on vaccine dissemination data and created prediction surfaces for the probability of vaccine ingestion by wild boar using spatial interpolation techniques. Consequently, the distance from the vaccination point to the water source was the most important variable, followed by elevation, season, road density, and slope. The area under the curve, model accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for model evaluation were 0.760, 0.678, 0.661, and 0.685, respectively. Areas with high probability of wild boar vaccination were predicted in northern, eastern, and western part of Gifu. Leave-One-Out Cross Validation results showed that Kriging approach was more accurate than the Inverse distance weighting method. We emphasize that effective vaccination strategies based on epidemiological data are essential for disease control and that our proposed tool is also applicable for other wildlife diseases.Item Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of the Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and the Role of Environmental Factors in South Korea(Viruses, 2022) Ito, Satoshi; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Jeong, Hyunkyu; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Park, Jonghoon; Martínez Avilés, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelSince the first confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pig farms in South Korea in September 2019, ASF continues to expand and most notifications have been reported in wild boar populations. In this study, we first performed a spatio-temporal cluster analysis to understand ASF spread in wild boar. Secondly, generalized linear logistic regression (GLLR) model analysis was performed to identify environmental factors contributing to cluster formation. In the meantime, the basic reproduction number (R0) for each cluster was estimated to understand the growth of the epidemic. The cluster analysis resulted in the detection of 17 spatio-temporal clusters. The GLLR model analysis identified factors influencing cluster formation and indicated the possibility of estimating ASF epidemic areas based on environmental conditions. In a scenario only considering direct transmission among wild boar, R0 ranged from 1.01 to 1.5 with an average of 1.10, while, in another scenario including indirect transmission via an infected carcass, R0 ranged from 1.03 to 4.38 with an average of 1.56. We identified factors influencing ASF expansion based on spatio-temporal clusters. The results obtained would be useful for selecting priority areas for ASF control and would greatly assist in identifying efficient vaccination areas in the future.Item Eco-Sanitary Regionalization of Wild Boar (Sus scrofa) in the Western Palearctic Realm as a Tool for the Stewardship of African Swine Fever(Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2023) Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel; Muñoz Pérez, Carolina; Martínez-Avilés, Marta; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; E. MateuAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a viral hemorrhagic disease affecting domestic and wild suids, with catastrophic socioeconomic impact worldwide. In the European scenario, wild boar (Sus scrofa) actively contributes to the maintenance and spread of the disease. In this study, we applied a multivariate clustering method to define ecoregions in the western Palearctic realm based on ecological and sanitary aspects of ASF in wild boar. Beforehand, we performed a principal components analysis for the eight selected variables. An analysis of the countries was carried out in terms of the extent of ecoregions and ASF notifications. After clustering, we identified nine eco-regions that showed important differences based on the used eco-sanitary variables. Several ecoregions stand out in the country and notification analysis for retaining the most ASF cases and being present in their surrounding locations. Here, we developed a cartographical tool to understand patterns in the distribution and spread of ASF in wild boar at the European level, as well as improve prevention, control, surveillance plans, and eradication strategies, especially future vaccination programs once a safe and effective vaccine is available.Item Geospatial analysis for strategic wildlife disease surveillance: African swine fever in South Korea (2019–2021)(Plos One, 2024) Ito, Satoshi; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Jeong, Hyunkyu; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelSince the confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in South Korea in 2019, its spread, predominantly in wild boars, has been a significant concern. A key factor in this situation is the lack of identification of risk factors by surveillance bias. The unique orography, characterized by high mountains, complicates search efforts, leading to overlooked or delayed case detection and posing risks to the swine industry. Additionally, shared rivers with neighboring country present a continual threat of virus entry. This study employs geospatial analysis and statistical methods to 1) identify areas at high risk of ASF occurrence but possibly under-surveilled, and 2) indicate strategic surveillance points for monitoring the risk of ASF virus entry through water bodies and basin influences. Pearson’s rho test indicated that elevation (rho = -0.908, p-value < 0.001) and distance from roads (rho = -0.979, p-value < 0.001) may have a significant impact on limiting surveillance activities. A map of potential under-surveilled areas was created considering these results and was validated by a chi-square goodness-of-fit test (X-square = 208.03, df = 1, p-value < 0.001). The strong negative correlation (rho = -0.997, p-value <0.001) between ASF-positive wild boars and distance from water sources emphasizes that areas surrounding rivers are one of the priority areas for monitoring. The subsequent hydrological analyses provided important points for monitoring the risk of virus entry via water from the neighboring country. This research aims to facilitate early detection and prevent further spread of ASF.