Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population
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2024
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Nature
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Goicolea T, Cisneros-Araujo P, Aguilar-Vega C, Sanchez-Vizcaino JM, Mateo-Sanchez MC and Bosch J*. Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population. Scientific reports, 10;14(1):3414. 2024. (A). ISSN: 2045-2322. Impact factor 2022: 4.600. Category: Multidisciplinary Sciences, Quartile: 2, Position: 22 of 73. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-53869-5
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious and highly fatal disease affecting wild and domestic swine, which is unstoppably spreading worldwide. In Europe, wild boars are one of the main drivers of spread, transmission, and maintenance of the disease. Landscape connectivity studies are the main discipline to analyze wild-species dispersal networks, and it can be an essential tool to predict dispersal-wild boar movement routes and probabilities and therefore the associated potential ASF spread through the suitable habitat. We aimed to integrate wild boar habitat connectivity predictions with their occurrence, population abundance, and ASF notifications to calculate the impact (i.e., the capacity of a landscape feature to favor ASF spread) and the risk (i.e., the likelihood of a habitat patch becoming infected) of wild boar infection across Europe. Furthermore, we tested the accuracy of the risk of infection by comparing the results with the temporal distribution of ASF cases. Our findings identified the areas with the highest impact and risk factors within Europe's central and Eastern regions where ASF is currently distributed. Additionally, the impact factor was 31 times higher on habitat patches that were infected vs non-infected, proving the utility of the proposed approach and the key role of wild boar movements in ASF-spread. All data and resulting maps are openly accessible and usable.
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Author contributions
T.G., J.B., and M.C.M.S. conceptualized and designed the study. J.B. conducted data negotiation and collection. T.G., J.B., P.C., and M.C.M.S. were responsible for methodology design while T.G. and P.C. performed the analysis. T.G., J.B., and M.C.M.S. were responsible for validation and review of the results. The first draft of the manuscript was written by T.G., which was reviewed by the rest of authors. M.C.M.S. and J.B. supervised the entire project. The author responsible for funding acquisition and project supervision were J.M.S.V., J.B. and M.C.M.S. M.C.M.S. and J.B. are co-last authors. All authors read and approved the definitive version of this manuscript.