A partisan explanation of political monetary cycles

dc.contributor.authorGarcía de Paso, José I.
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops a political monetary model based on partisanship and commitment arguments that explains the likely existence of expansionary monetary policy in pre-election periods irrespective of the incumbent party and of permanent partisan differences in monetary policy. The approach taken is to incorporate the option that political parties elaborate electoral economic programs into a rational partisan electoral model. Our results are consistent with the recent empírical findings of Alesina, Cahen, and Roubini (1992, 1993) for a sample including three decades in 18 OECD economies but without relying on opportinistic governmental behavior.
dc.description.abstractEste trabajo desarrolla un modelo político de la conducción de la política monetaria basado en argumentos de partidismo y compromiso vinculante que explica la probable existencia de políticas monetarias expansivas en periodos preelectorales así como la de diferencias partidistas en la conducción monetaria. La idea consiste en incorporar a un modelo electoral partidista y racional la opción de que los partidos políticos presenten al electorado un programa económico electoral. Las conclusiones del modelo son consistentes con los recientes resultados empíricos de Alesina, Cohen y Roubini (1992, 1993) para una muestra de 18 países de la OCDE durante tres décadas pero sin tener que utilizar el supuesto de comportamiento oportunista por parte de los gobiernos.
dc.description.facultyFac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
dc.description.facultyInstituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
dc.identifier.citationAlesina, Alberto. "Credibility and Poliey Convergenee in a Two-Party System with Rational Volers." American Economic Review 78 (1988): 796-805. Alesina, Alberto, and Nouriel Roubini. "Political Cycles in OECD Economics". The Review of Economic Studies 59 (1992): 663-88. Alesina, Alberto, Gerald Cohen, and Nouriel Roubin. "Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies." Economics and Politics 4 (1992): 1-31. _____ . "Electoral Business Cycle in Industrial Democracies". European Journal of Political Economy 9 (1993): 1-24. Ayuso, Juan. "Los Efectos de un Anuncio de Inflación". Investigaciones Económicas 15 (1991): 627-44. Backus, David, and John Driffill. "Inflation and Reputation". American Economic Review 75 (1985): 530-8. Barro, Robert J. "Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy with incomplete Information". Journal of Monetary Economics 17 (1986): 3-20. Cukierman, Alex, Central Bank strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence. Cambrige. Massachusetts: The MIT Press, 1992. Cukierman, Alex, and Nissan Llviatan. "Optimal Accommodation by Strong Policymakers under Incomplete Information". Journal of Monetary Economies 27 (1991): 99-127. Ellis. Chrlstopher J. and Mark A. Thoma. "Credibility and Political Business Cycles". Journal of Macroeconomics 15 (1993): 69-89. Fratianni, Michele. Jürgen von Hagen, and Christopher Waller. "Central Banking as a Principal-Agent Problem." CEPR Discussion Paper No. 752 (1993). Nordhaus, William D. "The Political Business Cycle." The Review of Economic Studies 42 (1975): 169-90. Rogoff, Kenneth. "Equilibrium Political Budget cycles," American Economic Review 80 (1990): 21-36. Rogoff, Kenneth, and Anne Sibert. "Equilibrium Political Business Cycles." The Review of Economic Studies 55 (1988): 1-16. Vickers, Jahn. "Signalling in a Model of Monetary Policy with Incomplete Information". Oxford Economic Papers 38 (1986): 443-55.
dc.publisherFacultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDocumentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 España
dc.rights.accessRightsopen access
dc.subject.keywordPolítica monetaria
dc.subject.keywordPartidos políticos
dc.subject.keywordModelo político.
dc.subject.ucmPartidos y grupos políticos
dc.subject.ucmPlanificación económica
dc.subject.unesco5905.01 Elecciones
dc.subject.unesco5905.06 Partidos Políticos
dc.subject.unesco5307.09 Teoría de la Planificación Económica
dc.titleA partisan explanation of political monetary cycles
dc.typetechnical report
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