A novel approach to assessing the jumping to conclusions bias: Evidence of validity from the real-life paradigm

Abstract

The Jumping to Conclusions bias (JTC), characterized by hasty decision-making with insufficient information, is associated with delusion development. The beads task, a standard measure for JTC, assesses informationgathering behaviour but may yield inconsistent results due to comprehension difficulties and limited engagement. To address these shortcomings, we developed the Real-Life Paradigm —two novel tasks simulating social scenarios, tested alongside the beads task under three experimental conditions (baseline, time pressure and costbenefit), along with measures of psychotic experiences, emotional states, and task appraisal. Using Confirmatory Factor Analysis with a multitrait-multimethod approach in a non-clinical sample (N = 253), the Real-Life Paradigm demonstrated strong convergent and discriminant validity, reflecting distinct but related JTC patterns across different scenarios. The type of information (neutral vs. social) and presentation (visual vs. verbal) influenced JTC patterns, with no correlation between positive psychotic experiences and any task. Participants found the new scenarios, particularly under cost-benefit conditions, more realistic and engaging than the beads task. These findings provide initial support for the Real-Life Paradigm as a method for assessing JTC. This paradigm addresses limitations of traditional JTC measures and offers a more ecologically valid approach to studying decision-making processes related to delusion formation.