Publication: Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM)
Full text at PDC
Marsh, Daniel R.
Mills, Michael J.
Kinnison, Douglas E.
Polvani, Lorenzo M.
Advisors (or tutors)
American Meteorological Society
The NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) now includes an atmospheric component that extends in altitude to the lower thermosphere. This atmospheric model, known as the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), includes fully interactive chemistry, allowing, for example, a self-consistent representation of the development and recovery of the stratospheric ozone hole and its effect on the troposphere. This paper focuses on analysis of an ensemble of transient simulations using CESM1(WACCM), covering the period from the preindustrial era to present day, conducted as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Variability in the stratosphere, such as that associated with stratospheric sudden warmings and the development of the ozone hole, is in good agreement with observations. The signals of these phenomena propagate into the troposphere, influencing near-surface winds, precipitation rates, and the extent of sea ice. In comparison of tropospheric climate change predictions with those from a version of CESM that does not fully resolve the stratosphere, the global-mean temperature trends are indistinguishable. However, systematic differences do exist in other climate variables, particularly in the extratropics. The magnitude of the difference can be as large as the climate change response itself. This indicates that the representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling could be a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections in CESM.
© 2013 American Meteorological Society. We thank Rolando Garcia, Marianna Vertenstein, Christopher Fischer, Francis Vitt, and Fabrizio Sassi for assistance in developing CESM1 (WACCM) and interpreting its output. We also thank Edwin Gerber for discussions on deriving a simplified NAM index and Rich Neale and David Barriopedro for advice on the calculation of blocking frequency. The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Computing resources were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), sponsored by the National Science Foundation and other agencies. This research was enabled by CISL compute and storage resources. Bluefire, a 4064-processor IBM Power6 resource with a peak of 77 TeraFLOPS, provided more than 7.5 million computing hours, the GLADE high-speed disk resources provided 0.4 PetaBytes of dedicated disk, and CISL's 12-PB HPSS archive provided over 1 PetaByte of storage in support of this research project. LMP is supported in part by a grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation to Columbia University. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
Ammann, C. M., 2003: A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of 20th century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1657, doi:10.1029/2003GL016875. Arblaster, J., and G. A. Meehl, 2006: Contributions of external forcings to southern annular mode trends. J. Climate, 19, 2896–2905. Baldwin, M. P., and T.Dunkerton, 2001: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science, 294, 581–584, doi:10.1126/ science.1063315. ——, and D. W. Thompson, 2009: A critical comparison of stratosphere–troposphere coupling indices. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1661–1672, doi:10.1002/qj.479. Boville, B. A., 1995: Middle atmosphere version of CCM2 (MACCM2): Annual cycle and interannual variability. J. Geophys. Res., 100 (D5), 9017–9039. Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548. Butler, A. H., and L. M. Polvani, 2011: El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings: A reevaluation in light of the observational record. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13807, doi:10.1029/2011GL048084. Calvo, N., R. R. García, W. J. Randel, and D. R. Marsh, 2010: Dynamical mechanism for the increase in tropical upwelling in the lowermost tropical stratosphere during warm ENSO events. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2331–2340. ——, ——, D. R. Marsh, M. J. Mills, D. E. Kinnison, and P. J. Young, 2012: Reconciling modeled and observed temperature trends over Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16803, doi:10.1029/2012GL052526. Castanheira, J. M., and D. Barriopedro, 2010: Dynamical connection between tropospheric blockings and stratospheric polar vortex. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L13809, doi:10.1029/2010GL043819. Charlton, A. J., and L. M. Polvani, 2007: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks. J. Climate, 20, 449–469. Charlton-Pérez, A. J., and Coauthors, 2013: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2494–2505, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50125. Danabasoglu, G., S. C. Bates, B. P. Briegleb, S. R. J. M. Jochum, W. G. Large, S. Peacock, and S. G. Yeager, 2012: The CCSM4 ocean component. J. Climate, 25, 1361–1389. D’Andrea, F., and Coauthors, 1998: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979–1988. Climate Dyn., 14, 385–407, doi:10.1007/s003820050230. de Boer, G., W. Chapman, J. E. Kay, B. Medeiros, M. D. Shupe, S. Vavrus, and J. Walsh, 2012: A characterization of the presentday Arctic atmosphere in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 2676–2695. de la Torre, L., R. R. García, D. Barriopedro, and A. Chandran, 2012: Climatology and characteristics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D04110, doi:10.1029/2011JD016840. Deser, C., and Coauthors, 2012: ENSO and Pacific decadal variability in the Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 25, 2622–2651. Eyring, V., and Coauthors, 2007: Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332. ——, and Coauthors, 2010a: Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9451–9472, doi:10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010. ——, T. Shepherd, and D. Waugh, Eds., 2010b: Stratospheric processes and their role in climate: SPARC report on the evaluation of chemistry-climate models. WCRP-132, WMO/TD-1526, SPARC Rep. 5, 408 pp. [Available online at http://www.sparc-climate.org/publications/sparc-reports/.] Fogt, R. L., J. Perlwitz, A. J. Monaghan, D. H. Bromwich, J. M. Jones, and G. J. Marshall, 2009: Historical SAM variability. Part II: Twentieth-century variability and trends from reconstructions, observations, and the IPCCAR4models. J. Climate, 22, 5346–5365. Forster, P., and Coauthors, 2007: Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 129–234. García, R. R., D. R. Marsh, D. E. Kinnison, B. A. Boville, and F. Sassi, 2007: Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09301, doi:10.1029/2006JD007485. Gent, P. R., and Coauthors, 2011: The Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991. Gerber, E. P., and Coauthors, 2010: Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry-climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M06, doi:10.1029/2009JD013770. ——, and Coauthors, 2012: Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 845–859. Holland, M. M., D. A. Bailey, B. P. Briegleb, B. Light, and E. Hunke, 2012: Improved sea ice shortwave radiation physics in CCSM4: The impact of melt ponds and aerosols on Arctic sea ice. J. Climate, 25, 1413–1430. Jackman, C., D. R. Marsh, F. M. Vitt, R. R. Garcia, C. E. Randall, E. L. Fleming, and S. M. Frith, 2009: Long-term middle atmospheric influence of very large solar proton events. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D11304, doi:10.1029/2008JD011415. Kinnison,D. E., and Coauthors, 2007: Sensitivity of chemical tracers to meteorological parameters in the MOZART-3 chemical transport model. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D20302, doi:10.1029/2006JD007879. Kopp, G., and J. L. Lean, 2011: A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L01706, doi:10.1029/2010GL045777. Kushner, P. J., 2010: Annular modes of the troposphere and stratosphere. The Stratosphere: Dynamics, Transport, and Chemistry, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 190, Amer. Geophys. Union, 59–91. Lamarque, J.-F., and Coauthors, 2010: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols:Methodology and application. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010. Landrum, L., M. Holland, D. Schneider, and E. Hunke, 2012: Antarctic sea ice climatology, variability, and late twentiethcentury change in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 4817–4838. Lean, J., G. Rottman, J. Harder, and G. Kopp, 2005: SORCE contributions to new understanding of global change and solar variability. Sol. Phys., 230, 27–53, doi:10.1007/s11207-005-1527-2. Marsh, D. R., R. R. García, D. E. Kinnison, B. A. Bouville, F. Sassi, S. C. Solomon, and K. Matthes, 2007: Modeling the whole atmosphere response to solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D23306, doi:10.1029/2006JD008306. Marshall, G. J., 2003: Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Climate, 16, 4134–4143. Martius, O., L. M. Polvani, and H. C. Davies, 2009: Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14806, doi:10.1029/2009GL038776. Matthes, K., D. R. Marsh, R. R. Garcia, D. E. Kinnison, F. Sassi, and S. Walters, 2010: Role of the QBO in modulating the influence of the 11 year solar cycle on the atmosphere using constant forcings. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18110, doi:10.1029/2009JD013020. Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2012: Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 3661–3683. Meinshausen, M., and Coauthors, 2011: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109, 213–241, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z. Morgenstern, O., and Coauthors, 2010: Review of the formulation of present-generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M02, doi:10.1029/2009JD013728. Neale, R., J. Richter, S. Park, P. Lauritzen, S. Vavrus, P. Rasch, and M. Zhang, 2013: The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments. J. Climate, 26, 5150–5168. Perlwitz, J., S. Pawson, R. Fogt, J. Nielsen, and W. Neff, 2008: Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08714, doi:10.1029/2008GL033317. Polvani, L. M., D.W.Waugh, G. J. P. Correa, and S.-W. Son, 2011: Stratospheric ozone depletion: The main driver of twentieth century atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 24, 795–812. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670. Remsberg, E. E., and Coauthors, 2008: Assessment of the quality of the version 1.07 temperature-versus-pressure profiles of the middle atmosphere from TIMED/SABER. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D17101, doi:10.1029/2008JD010013. Richter, J. H., F. Sassi, and R. R. Garcia, 2010: Toward a physically based gravity wave source parameterization in a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 136–156. Rienecker, M. M., and Coauthors, 2011: MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. J. Climate, 24, 3624–3648. Sander, S. P., and Coauthors, 2006: Chemical kinetics and photochemical data for use in atmospheric studies. JPL Publ. 06-2, 523 pp. Sassi, F., D. Kinnison, B. A. Boville, R. R. Garcia, and R. Roble, 2004: Effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the dynamical, thermal, and chemical structure of the middle atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D17108, doi:10.1029/2003JD004434. Scaife, A. A., T. Woollings, J. Knight, G. Martin, and T. Hinton, 2010:Atmospheric blocking andmean biases in climatemodels. J. Climate, 23, 6143–6152. ——, and Coauthors, 2012: Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction. Climate Dyn., 38, 2089–2097, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7. Sigmond, M., and J. C. Fyfe, 2010: Has the ozone hole contributed to increased Antarctic sea ice extent? Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18502, doi:10.1029/2010GL044301. Smith, A. K., R. R. Garcia, D. R. Marsh, D. E. Kinnison, and J. H. Richter, 2010: Simulations of the response of mesospheric circulation and temperature to the Antarctic ozone hole. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22803, doi:10.1029/2010GL045255. Smith, K. L., L.M. Polavani, and D. R.Marsh, 2012: Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20701, doi:10.1029/2012GL053325. Son, S.-W., N. F. Tandon, L. M. Polvani, and D. W. Waugh, 2009: Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15705, doi:10.1029/2009GL038671. Swinbank, R., and D. A. Ortland, 2003: Compilation of wind data for the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Reference Atmosphere Project. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4615, doi:10.1029/2002JD003135. Tabazadeh, A., O. B. Toon, S. L. Clegg, and P. Hamill, 1997: A new parameterization of H2SO4/H2O aerosol composition: Atmospheric implications. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1931–1934, doi:10.1029/97GL01879. Taylor, K., R. Stouffer, and G. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498. Thompson, D. W. J., and S. Solomon, 2005: Recent stratospheric climate trends as evidenced in radiosonde data: Global structure and tropospheric linkages. J. Climate, 18, 4785–4795. Tilmes, S., R. M€uller, and R. J. Salawitch, 2008: The sensitivity of polar ozone depletion to proposed geoengineering schemes. Science, 320, 1201–1204, doi:10.1126/science.1153966. ——, R. R. García, D. E. Kinnison, A. Gettelman, and P. J. Rasch, 2009: Impact of geoengineered aerosols on the troposphere and stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D12305, doi:10.1029/2008JD011420. Turner, J., and Coauthors, 2009: Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037524. Young, P., A. Butler, N. Calvo, L. Haimberger, P. Kushner, D. Marsh, W. J. Randel, and K. H. Rosenlof, 2013: Agreement in late twentieth century Southern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature trends in observations and CCMVal-2, CMIP3, and CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 605–613, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50126.