Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium

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Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere.
© Author(s) 2015. Artículo firmado por 24 autores. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. This study is based on discussions held during the joint workshop of the PAGES 2k network and PAST2k-PMIP Integrated analyses of reconstructions and multimodel simulations for the past two millennia, Madrid, Spain, 4-6 November 2013. PAGES and FECYT (FCT-13-6276) are greatly thanked for supporting this workshop. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. The US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support for CMIP and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. H. Goosse is Research Director with the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS, Belgium). This work is supported by the F.R.S.-FNRS and by the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (Research Programme on Science for a Sustainable Development). C. C. Raible and F. Lehner are supported by the Swiss National Science foundation. P. Yiou is supported by the MILEX project of the Swedish Research Council. J. Gergis is funded by Australian Research Council project DE130100668. O. Bothe was supported by LOCHMES (Leibniz Society), PRIME-II (within DFG INTERDYNAMIK), and CliSAP. L. Fernández Donado was funded by a FPU grant: AP2009-4061. A. Moberg and A. Hind are supported by the Swedish Research Council grants B0334901 and C0592401. G. Hegerl and A. Schurer are supported by the ERC advanced grant TITAN (320691). L. Fernández Donado, E. García Bustamente, and J. F. González Rouco were supported by grants CGL2011-29677-CO2-02 and CGL2014-59644-R. Gabi Hegerl was also supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award and by NCAS. This is LDEO contribution number 7956. N. McKay was funded through the US National Science Foundation (ARC-1107869).
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