Path and speed of spectrum management reform under uncertain costs and benefits

Abstract

The unsolved question in spectrum management is no longer if a reform is necessary to enable higher market participation but the optimal path and speed of reform. We offer an expression to determine when to choose a gradual or big bang reform depending on current and expected technology and an expression to determine whether to wait or not for new technology. Gradual is better if the technological advance coefficient is high, the reversibility of the reforms is costly, the duration of the second reform is long, the probability of an outcome lower than expected is considerable or the reforms are not too complementary.