Using Scenarios for Reducing Uncertainties in Biodiversity Conservation: From Global Targets to European Steppes

Abstract

Scenario analysis allows assessing how complex socio-ecological systems might respond to different policy pathways. We used an expert-based participatory approach to explore how four different European socio-ecological scenarios could impact (1) the implementation of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF) and (2) the achievement of priority conservation actions for safeguarding European steppe ecosystems. KM-GBF targets were expected to be met only under the scenario with increased commitment for sustainable development goals and global cooperation, but hardly achievable under the most environment-adverse and resource-demanding scenarios. Integrating different views from these scenarios, we identified six overarching recommendations for the conservation of European steppe ecosystems, including improving public awareness, empowering local communities, and promoting the engagement of private companies into conservation planning. Our approach identifies how socioeconomic drivers influence the success of the KM-GBF and the conservation of European steppes, providing a range of general conservation actions structured and prioritized to be effective under a wide range of likely future developments.