A multi-analysis approach for space-time and economic evaluation of risks related with livestock diseases: the example of FMD in Peru

Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
This study presents a multi-disciplinary decision-support tool, which integrates geo-statistics, social network analysis (SNA), spatial-stochastic spread model, economic analysis and mapping/visualization capabilities for the evaluation of the sanitary and socio-economic impact of food animal diseases under diverse epidemiologic scenarios. We illustrate the applicability of this tool using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peru as an example. The approach consisted on a flexible, multistep process that may be easily adapted based on data availability. The first module (mI) uses a geo-statistical approach for the estimation (if needed) of the distribution and abundance of susceptible population (in the example here, cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and camelids) at farm-level in the region or country of interest (Peru). The second module (mII) applies SNA for evaluating the farm-to-farm contact patterns and for exploring the structure and frequency of between-farm animal movements as a proxy for potential disease introduction or spread. The third module (mIII) integrates mI-II outputs into a spatial-stochastic model that simulates within- and between-farm FMD-transmission. The economic module (mIV), connects outputs from mI-III to provide an estimate of associated direct and indirect costs. A visualization module (mV) is also implemented to graph and map the outputs of module I-IV. After 1000 simulated epidemics, the mean (95% probability interval) number of outbreaks, infected animals, epidemic duration, and direct costs were 73 (1–1164), 2,152 (1–13,250), 63 days (0–442), and US$1.2 million (1,072–9.5 million), respectively. Spread of disease was primarily local (<4.5 km), but geolocation and type of index farm strongly influenced the extent and spatial patterns of an epidemic. The approach is intended to support decisions in the last phase of the FMD eradication program in Peru, in particular to inform and support the implementation of risk-based surveillance and livestock insurance systems that may help to prevent and control potential FMD virus incursions into Peru.
Anderson, R.M., May, R.M., 1991. Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control, 2nd Edition. Oxford University Press. BBC, 2011. Peru country profile. Available at: Becker, R.A., Wilks, A.R., 2013. maps: draw Geographical Maps. R version by Ray Brownrigg. Available at: Bivand, R., Lewin-Koh, N., Pebesma, E., Archer, E. et al. 2013a. maptools: tools for reading and handling spatial objects. Available at: Bivand, R., Ono, H., Dunlap, R., Stigler, M., 2013b. classInt: Choose univariate class intervals. Available at: Burrows, R., 1968. Excretion of foot-and-mouth disease virus prior to the development of lesions. Vet. Rec., 82, 387-388. CENAGRO, 1994. III Censo Nacional Agropecuario 1994 [III National Agricultural Census]. National Institute of Statistics and Informatics of Peru. Available at: Last accessed: Feb. 8, 2013 Csardi, G., Nepusz, T., 2006. The igraph software package for complex network research, InterJournal, Complex Systems 1695. Available at: Estrada, C., Perez, A., Turmond, M., 2004. Herd reproduction ratio and time-space analysis of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Peru in 2004. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 55, 284-292. FAO, 2013. News: FAO reconoce a Perú esfuerzos para vencer la fiebre aftosa [FAO recognizes efforts to defeat FMD in Peru]. Available at: . Last access: August 19, 2013. Fisher, W. D., 1958. On grouping for maximum homogeneity. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53, 789–798 Freeman, L.C., 1979. Centrality in Social Networks I: Conceptual Clarification. Social Networks, 1, 215-239. Gobierno de Peru, 2004. Reglamento para la Prevención y Erradicación de la Fiebre Aftosa [Regulations for the Prevention and Eradication of foot-and-mouth disease]. Decreto supremo 042-2004-AG. Available at: Højsgaard, S., Halekoh, U., 2013. doBy: Groupwise summary statistics, general linear contrasts, population means (least-squares-means), and other utilities. Available at: Hollander, M., Wolfe, D.A., 1999. Nonparametric Statistical Methods. New York: John Wiley & Sons. 2nd edition. Ivorra, B., Martínez-López, B., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M., Ramos, A.M., 2013. Mathematical formulation and validation of the Be-FAST model for Classical Swine Fever Virus spread between and within farms. Ann Oper Res, DOI 10.1007/s10479-012-1257-4. Lubroth, J., Yedloutschnig, R.J., Culhane, V.K., Mikiciuk, P.E., 1990. Foot-and-mouth disease virus in the llama (Lama glama): diagnosis, transmission, and susceptibility. J Vet Diagn Invest. 2, 197-203. Martínez-López, B., Perez, A.M., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M., 2009. Social Network Analysis. Review of General Concepts and Use in Preventive Veterinary Medicine. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. 56, 109–120 Martínez-López, B., Ivorra, B., Ramos, A.M., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M. 2011. A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I General concepts and description of the model. Vet. Microb., 147, 300-309. Martínez-López, B., Ivorra, B., Ramos, A.M., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M. 2012. A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus: II Validation of the model. Vet. Microb., 155, 21-32 McIlroy, D., 2013. mapproj: Map Projections. Packaged for R by Brownrigg R. and Minka, T.P., Available at: McLaws, M., Ribble, C., Stephen, C, McNab, B., Romero Barrios, P., 2007. Reporting of suspect cases of foot-and-mouth-disease during the 2001 epidemic in the UK, and the herd sensitivity and herd specificity of clinical diagnosis. Prev Vet Med, 78, 12-23. Ministerio de Agricultura, 2013. Capítulo 7 Estadística Pecuaria. Ministerio de Agricultura- Dirección General de Información Agraria- Dirección de Estadística. Perú. Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentacion y Medio Ambiente, 2013. Orden AAA/2895/2012, por la que se definen las explotaciones, animales y grupos asegurables, las condiciones técnicas mínimas de explotación, el ámbito de aplicación, el periodo de garantía y los precios y fechas de suscripción en relación con el seguro de explotación de ganado vacuno de alta valoración genética, comprendido en el Plan Anual 2013 de Seguros Agrarios Combinados. Available at: Ministerio del Ambiente, 2013. Geoservidor [Geoserver]. Available at: Last access: March 3, 2013. Naranjo, J., Cosivi, O., 2013. Elimination of foot-and-mouth disease in South America: lessons and challenges. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 368: 20120381. Neuwirth, E., 2011. RColorBrewer: ColorBrewer palettes. Available at: Orsel, K., Bouma, A., Dekker, A., Stegeman, J.A., de Jong, M.C.M., 2009. Foot and mouth disease virus transmission during the incubation period of the disease in piglets, lambs, calves, and dairy cows. Prev Vet Med, 158-163. Orsel, K., Dekker, A., Bouma, A., Stegeman, J.A., de Jong, M.C.M, 2007. Quantification of foot and mouth disease virus excretion and transmission within groups of lambs with and without vaccination. Vaccine, 2673-2679. Pebesma, E., Bivand, R., Rowlingson, B., Gomez-Rubio, V., 2013. sp: classes and methods for spatial data. Available at: Pouillot, R., Delignette-Muller, M.L., Denis, J-B., 2013. mc2d: tools for two-dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations. Available at: R Core Team, 2013. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL Rich, K.M., Perry, B.D., 2011. The economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases in developing countries: New roles, new demands for economics and epidemiology. Prev Vet Med, 101, 133-147. Romero, J.R., Villamil, L.C., Pinto, J.A., 1999. Impacto económico de enfermedades en sistemas productivos en Sudamérica: estudios de caso [Economic impact of diseases on production systems in South America: case studies]. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz, 18, 498-511. Rowlingson, B. and Diggle, P., 1993. splancs: spatial point pattern analysis code in S-Plus. Computers and Geosciences, 19, 627-655; the original sources can be accessed at: Rushton, J., 2008. Economic aspects of foot and mouth disease in Bolivia. Rev Sci Tech., 27, 759-769. Sanson, R.L., Stevenson, M.A. and Moles-Benfell, N., 2006. Quantifying local spread probabilities for foot-and-mouth disease. Proceedings of the 11th Symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics. Cairns, Australia, 6-11 August 2006. SIICEX, 2013. Informe de las Exportaciones Peruanas por Sector - Septiembre 2013 [Report of Peruvian Exports by Sector – September 2013]. Peruvian Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism. In Spanish. Available at: Sutmoller, P., Barteling, S.S., Olascoaga, R.C., Sumption, K.J., 2003. Control and eradication of foot-and-mouth disease. Virus Res., 91, 101-144 Valderrama, W., 2010. Evaluación económica y epidemiológica en programas de salud animal: el caso de fiebre aftosa en el Perú [Economic and epidemiological assessment of animal health programs: the case of FMD in Peru]. Master Thesis.