Natural and anthropogenic modes of surface temperature variations in the last thousand years

Thumbnail Image
Full text at PDC
Publication Date
Advisors (or tutors)
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
American Geophysical Union
Google Scholar
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
The spatial patterns of surface air-temperature variations in the period 1000 to 2100, simulated with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean coupled model, are analyzed. The model was driven by solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing. The leading mode of temperature variability in the preindustrial period represents an almost global coherent variation of temperatures, with larger amplitudes over the continents and Northern Hemisphere. This mode also describes a large part of the spatial structure of the warming simulated in the 21st century. However, in the 21st century, regional departures from this spatial structure are also present and can be ascribed to atmospheric circulation responses to anthropogenic forcing in the last decades of the 21st century.
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union. We thank the two reviewers and Drs. D. Bray, J. Luterbacher, M. Montoya and E. Xoplaki for their comments and proof reading of this manuscript. This work was partially funded by the DEKLIM Program of the German BMBF, the EU project SO&P and by the project REN-2000-0786Cli of the Spanish CICYT.
Unesco subjects
Bauer, E., M. Claussen, V. Brovkin, and A. Huenerbein (2003), Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(6), 1276, doi:10.1029/2002GL016639. Briffa, K. R., and T. J. Osborn (2002), Blowing hot and cold, Science, 295, 2227 – 2228. Corti, S., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer (1999), Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes, Nature, 398, 799 – 802. Crowley, T. J. (2000), Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, Science, 289, 270 – 277. Cubasch, U., R. Voss, G. C. Hegerl, J. Waszkewitz, and T. J. Crowley (1997), Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, Clim. Dyn., 13, 757 – 767. Fyfe, J. C., G. J. Boer, and G. M. Flato (1999), The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations and their projected changes under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1601 – 1604. González Rouco, F., H. von Storch, and E. Zorita (2003), Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(21), 2116, doi:10.1029/2003GL018264. Haigh, J. D. (1999), Modelling the impact of solar variability on climate, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 61, 63 – 72. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by J. T. Houghton et al., 881 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York. Jones, P. D., and M. E. Mann (2004), Climate over past millennia, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG2002, doi:10.1029/2003RG000143. Jones, P. D., K. R. Briffa, T. P. Barnett, and S. F. B. Tett (1998), Highresolution paleoclimatic records for the last millenium: Interpretation, integration and comparison with general circulation model control-run temperatures, Holocene, 8, 455 – 471. Legutke, S., and R. Voss (1999), The Hamburg atmosphere-ocean coupled circulation model ECHO-G, DKRZ Tech. Rep. 18, Dtsch. Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, Germany. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1999), Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millenium: Inferences, uncertainties and limitations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 759 – 762. Rind, D., D. Shindell, J. Perlwitz, and J. Lerner (2004), The relative importance of solar and anthropogenic forcing of climate change between the Maunder Minimum and the present, J. Clim., 17, 906 – 929. Shindell, D. T., G. A. Schmidt, M. E. Mann, D. Rind, and A. Waple (2001), Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, 2149 – 2152. von Storch, H., and F. Zwiers (1999), Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York. Zorita, E., and J. F. González Rouco (2000), Desagreement in North Atlantic Oscillation predictions and implications for global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1755 – 1758. Zorita, E., and J. F. González Rouco (2002), Are temperature-sensitive proxies adequate for North Atlantic Oscillation reconstructions?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(14), 1703, doi:10.1029/2002GL015404. Zorita, E., J. F. González Rouco, and S. Legutke (2003), Statistical temperature reconstruction in a 1000-year-long control climate simulation an excercise with Mann’s et al. (1998) method, J. Clim., 16, 1378 – 1390.