The Brewer-Dobson circulation in CMIP6
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2021
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Abalos, Marta, et al. «The Brewer–Dobson Circulation in CMIP6». Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 21, n.o 17, septiembre de 2021, pp. 13571-91. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021.
Abstract
The Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a key feature of the stratosphere that models need to accurately represent in order to simulate surface climate variability and change adequately. For the first time, the Climate Model Intercomparison Project includes in its phase 6 (CMIP6) a set of diagnostics that allow for careful evaluation of the BDC. Here, the BDC is evaluated against observations and reanalyses using historical simulations. CMIP6 results confirm the well-known inconsistency in the sign of BDC trends between observations and models in the middle and upper stratosphere. Nevertheless, the large uncertainty in the observational trend estimates opens the door to compatibility. In particular, when accounting for the limited sampling of the observations, model and observational trend error bars overlap in 40 % of the simulations with available output. The increasing CO2 simulations feature an acceleration of the BDC but reveal a large spread in the middle-to-upper stratospheric trends, possibly related to the parameterized gravity wave forcing. The very close connection between the shallow branch of the residual circulation and surface temperature is highlighted, which is absent in the deep branch. The trends in mean age of air are shown to be more robust throughout the stratosphere than those in the residual circulation.
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© Author(s) 2021. Artículo firmado por 13 autores. We are thankful to Gabi Stiller for providing the latest version of MIPAS data, as well as to Ed Gerber and two anonymous reviewers for insightful and constructive comments on the paper. Marta Abalos acknowledges funding from grant CGL2017-83198-R (STEADY). Natalia Calvo was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the JeDiS (Jet Dynamics and extremeS) project (RTI2018-096402-B-I00). Samuel Benito-Barca acknowledges the FPU program from the Ministry of Universities (grant no. FPU19/01481). Hella Garny was funded by the Helmholtz Association under grant VH-NG-1014 (Helmholtz-Hochschul-Nachwuchs-forschergruppe MACClim). Pu Lin acknowledges award NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce. Shingo Watanabe was supported by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) (grant nos. JP-MXD0717935457 and JPMXD0717935715) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. The Earth Simulator at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) was used for the MIROC6 simulations. The work of Steven C. Hardiman, Martin B. Andrews and Neal Butchart was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. Clara Orbe acknowledges the NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction program and resources provided by the NASA High-End Computing (HEC) program through the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. This research has been supported by the Program Atracción de Talento de la Comunidad de Madrid (grant no. 2016-T2/AMB-1405); the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the JeDiS (Jet Dynamics and extremeS, grant no. RTI2018-096402-B-I00) and STEADY (grant no. CGL2017-83198-R) projects; the Spanish Ministry of Universities (grant no. FPU19/01481); the Helmholtz Association (grant no. VH-NG-1014); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce (grant no. NA18OAR4320123); and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU, grant nos. JP-MXD0717935457 and JPMXD0717935715).